Europe’s workplaces now face a stark “cooling gap” with the U.S. Only about 20% of European homes have air conditioning, versus roughly 87% in the United States.
This shortfall is acute in northern Europe: Britain has just ~5% AC penetration, and Germany has less than 3%.
Without widespread cooling, workers in sweltering offices lose hours every summer that American colleagues in climate-controlled environments take for granted. Simply put, heat spikes that Americans shrug off at work turn into debilitating heat stress for many European employees.
Economic Strain
Heat waves are already shaving sizable shares off European GDP. A recent Allianz report found that days above 32°C cut growth by about 0.5% of GDP each year – roughly the same blow as a half-day of nationwide strikes.
Within Europe, the pain varies: Spain suffers most, losing roughly 1.4% of output to summer heat, and Italy about 1.0%.
These aren’t distant forecasts – they reflect current conditions where lack of cooling in factories and offices is eroding productivity. For Europe, this means every summer heat wave now brings tangible economic pain.
Historical Context
Even before today’s heat, Europe’s productivity was lagging. Since the 1990s, U.S. output per hour has climbed much faster. Between late 2019 and mid-2024, American hourly productivity surged 6.7%, while Europe grew by only 0.9%.
The gap is stark in high-tech industries: American firms saw rapid gains in climate-controlled offices, whereas European counterparts often stagnated.
Meanwhile, Europe’s reliance on older capital and labor arrangements – rather than broad AC use – is compounding a long-term productivity lag.
Rising Pressures
Europe is heating up faster than the rest of the world, intensifying its struggle. Copernicus climate data show Europe’s average temperature has risen about twice as fast as the global mean since the 1980s.
Summers start earlier, last longer and push into the 40s°C. Southern Europe has recorded heat-stress indices above 46°C in recent years.
Much of Europe’s urban infrastructure – thick stone walls, small windows, few fans – was built to keep heat in, not out. In short, Europe is a continent increasingly unprepared for regular extreme heat.
Breaking Point
July 2025 delivered Europe’s reckoning. In Milan, Florence and Bergamo, peak afternoon demand for air conditioning caused cascading blackouts. Grid operators blamed “excessive heat” for overwhelming transformers.
Hundreds of workers and commuters were suddenly trapped in stalled elevators as power failed, while traffic lights and computer systems shut off under the searing sun.
Italian officials warned the network had hit its limits – a “perfect storm” of heatwave demand meeting old infrastructure. Without cooling, even core services can seize up under extreme heat.
Regional Impact
Heat-induced slowdowns are worst in southern Europe. Greece’s economy, for example, can lose roughly 1% of GDP in a hot summer, as workers slow down and tourists stay home.
Coastal resorts from the Costa del Sol to Cyprus are seeing canceled bookings on the hottest weeks. In France, hot rivers have forced pre-emptive shutdowns of nuclear reactors (Golfech, for instance) to protect ecosystems when water hit 28°C.
Even in Central Europe, summer outages in Germany and Czechia are rising. The pattern is clear: this is no longer just a Mediterranean problem, but a growing drag on Europe’s economy.
Human Cost
Heat waves carry a steep human price. Loughborough University’s Prof. George Havenith finds that a workday at 35°C can cut an employee’s physical output by about 35% versus a cool day, rising to a 76% drop at 40°C.
Europe’s hospitals are already feeling it: Italian ER doctors report roughly 20% more patient visits during heat alerts.
“We’re seeing more illnesses in people with chronic conditions and the elderly,” notes Alessandro Riccardi, head of Italy’s emergency medicine association.
Across Europe, millions of workers now face more heat-related absences and lower productivity every summer.
Infrastructure Overload
Europe’s ageing power grids are straining under surging demand. On heatwave days, electricity use can spike ~15% above normal, sending wholesale prices through the roof (Poland briefly hit €470/MWh).
French grid operators hit record prices as they scrambled to add capacity.
Nuclear plants are feeling the squeeze: France shut down its Golfech reactor when the Garonne warmed past 28°C, and Switzerland’s Beznau plant shut one unit to protect the Aare River.
Even gas and wind producers had to curtail output at peak heat. In sum, Europe’s electricity system is reaching boiling point alongside the weather.
Market Response
Europe’s cooling market is heating up. By mid-2025, heatwaves had spurred a buying frenzy: Chinese makers report AC sales skyrocketing across Europe. Midea’s European shipments jumped 35% year-on-year, including a 68% surge in France.
Competing brands saw similar double-digit gains. Even basic plug-in AC units sold out at retailers. “Europe is starting to genuinely need cooling… It’s no longer a luxury, it’s becoming a necessity,” said Markus Schmitz, a German installer.
For context, analysts estimate Europe’s cooling market at about €25 billion, with some forecasts seeing it almost double by the early 2030s.
Hidden Costs
New studies quantify Europe’s unseen drag from heat. The optimal workplace temperature is around 18°C.
Many offices run 10–15°C hotter in summer. Every degree above 18°C steadily blunts focus: one model suggests billions of Europeans are already working under suboptimal conditions.
Health economists warn this is no small matter: productivity losses from heat directly cut into output and income. In effect, Europe’s workforce is quietly losing work-time (and wages) to heat exposure every summer day.
Resistance Patterns
Long-held cultural and practical barriers slow the adoption of cooling in Europe. Many employers still forbid AC or set high summer thermostats to save energy. In practice, adding AC is expensive: in Germany, a common 1.5-horsepower unit might sell for €600–€800, with installation often over €1,500.
Building codes and rental rules add hurdles (most renters need landlord approval). Above all, Europeans often view central AC as an excessive American luxury.
However, attitudes are shifting: as heatwaves strike more frequently, more employees are demanding cooler workdays.
Policy Shifts
Even politicians are changing their tune. In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen has called for a nationwide AC plan, accusing elites of making “workers suffer in the heat” while keeping their own offices cool.
Locally, heat-protection laws are spreading: Italy’s Lombardy and Lazio regions now forbid outdoor work during the hottest afternoon hours.
Across Europe, these events have pushed once-taboo debates back onto the table. The bottom line: climate and energy policies are now under pressure to adapt to this new reality.
Adaptation Strategies
Rather than fighting it, businesses are adapting. Many firms now split shifts – opening before sunrise and closing by early afternoon – to dodge peak heat.
Smart building systems are taking off: AI-driven HVAC and sensor networks adjust cooling in real time to occupancy and weather.
Companies are fast-tracking heat-pump installs, since heat pumps provide both cooling and heating on renewable power.
By creating cooler workplaces, these measures reduce heat-related downtime and can even save energy in the long run.
Expert Skepticism
Experts warn that simply cranking up the AC has pitfalls. Conventional systems use refrigerants thousands of times more potent than CO2 and dump heat outside, which can intensify urban heat islands. One French study found AC units could raise street temperatures by up to 4°C on hot days.
The EU’s CoolLIFE project now champions nature-based cooling – green roofs, reflective materials, nighttime ventilation – instead of a “high-carbon” fix.
As project coordinator, Simon Pezzutto warns, Europe urgently needs “efficient and sustainable cooling solutions” beyond just turning up the thermostat.
Future Implications
The productivity gap may become existential. Some analysts project that, under current trends, heat-related losses could roughly triple by mid-century – perhaps reaching on the order of 3% of EU GDP annually by 2050.
Beyond the numbers, this raises a fundamental question about Europe’s economic model: can it maintain its climate leadership if its industries and offices routinely underperform in summer? Will policymakers bend climate targets to boost short-term output?
As the continent warms, the long-tolerated tension between environmental ideals and economic reality comes to a head.
Political Reckoning
The air-conditioning divide is fueling a political reckoning. Some parties now portray AC as a working-class necessity, not an elite luxury. Others caution against an energy binge.
Labor groups are stepping in: Italy’s largest union, CGIL, urged construction firms to cut hours or lay off outdoor workers during extreme heat to protect them.
Across Europe, this debate has become urgent: policymakers must balance immediate worker welfare and productivity against long-term energy and climate goals.
Global Ripples
Southern Europe’s heat slowdown isn’t just a regional issue – it has global knock-on effects. European factories now face unpredictable shutdowns on scorching days, making supply chains more volatile.
Some multinationals have begun factoring local cooling capacity into investment decisions: a lack of reliable AC can tip projects toward Asia or North America.
Meanwhile, economies already used to heat (Asia, the Middle East) may gain a relative edge. Over time, Europe’s output may swing seasonally with the weather, giving an advantage to industries and countries better adapted to heat.
Environmental Paradox
Europe confronts a climate conundrum: it needs energy-intensive cooling just as carbon-cutting rules tighten. The new EU F-Gas Regulation (2024/573) bans many powerful refrigerants and phases out HFCs by 2050, making cheap AC harder to scale now.
Policymakers must reconcile this: for example, approving low-GWP coolants and boosting heat-pump rollouts using green power.
Europe’s green ambitions are bumping against the practical reality that people need to stay cool to work. This paradox is now a front-line issue in climate policy.
Generational Divide
Many younger Europeans now take air conditioning for granted. In startups and tech sectors, an office without AC is often considered unacceptable.
This causes friction with older colleagues who grew up managing without mechanical cooling.
Some young professionals have even refused jobs because summer offices lacked reliable AC. Surveys show rising expectations: younger generations increasingly demand comfortable work environments.
This trend may reinforce the shift toward hybrid work, as climate-controlled home offices often win out over sweltering open-floor plans.
Defining Moment
Europe’s cooling gap is more than an engineering shortfall; it marks a crossroads between climate ideals and economic reality. The heat-driven blackouts of 2025 were a wake-up call that the old low-energy paradigm has hit its limits.
The question now isn’t if Europe will install more cooling – that debate is settled – but how quickly it can do so without sacrificing its economic competitiveness or climate goals.
In the coming years, Europe must decide how to update its model – balancing comfort and productivity with its climate commitments.